Nickel & Cobalt Intermediates: Stable Sulphate, Indonesia Reset
Battery-grade nickel sulfate prices were unchanged on Nov 3 as smelters balanced lower nickel costs with tight spot availability. Policy shifts in Indonesia — annualized RKAB approvals for 2026 and recent sanctions across miners — sustain uncertainty for ore/NPI supply and smelter margins. Net: precursor costs steady; upstream policy and cobalt intermediate pricing add volatility.
Nickel sulfate: steady prints, thin spot
Battery-grade nickel sulfate index: CNY 28,395/mt on Nov 3 (28,450–28,650 offer range), flat d/d; smelters’ low inventories and raw-material cost support offset weak LME/Ni.
Indonesia: quota mechanics and compliance risk
RKAB 2026 regulation reverts planning to an annual basis (from a three-year trial), complicating quota visibility for ore and smelters.
Administrative sanctions this autumn hit 190 miners, underscoring governance risk across upstream supply (coal-weighted but including nickel).
Cobalt intermediates: payables get a benchmark
DRC export ban (Feb–Oct) and quota roll-out tightened cobalt intermediates, pushing payables higher and motivating standardized pricing.
Read-through to precursors
Nickel sulfate: balanced near term as spot is thin and smelters hold offers; downstream procurement is routine, not aggressive.
Cobalt sulfate: MHP transparency may narrow bid-ask and speed contract negotiations, but DRC quota implementation keeps upside risk to cobalt sustainability premia.
Outlook
Nickel sulfate: Neutral — offers supported by costs and limited spot; macro nickel remains soft.
Cobalt intermediates: Cautiously bullish — standardization plus lingering DRC logistics favor firmer payables; pass-through to sulfate with a lag.