Nickel & manganese: flat-to-firm precursors keep NCM costs steady; LFP inputs nudge up
Nickel sulfate prices in China are stable around ¥28,000–28,600/t, supported by MHP feed tightness and low producer inventories. Futures noise aside, physical premiums are resilient. Manganese sulfate rose in October on firm ore and stable cathode demand. For LFP, iron phosphate prices ticked higher. Net result: NCM precursor costs steady; LFP chemistry sees slight input inflation. Watch MHP payables, ore tenders and China’s monthly procurement cycles.
Nickel sulfate steady.
Analysts' index puts battery-grade NiSO₄ at ¥28,285/t on 11 Nov, with quotes ¥28,320–28,600/t; producer inventories are low and raw-material costs offer a floor, even as downstream acceptance softened after the procurement window.
Why it’s sticky. No major Indonesian MHP additions hit in 2025; new projects cluster in 2026, keeping payables firm and constraining sulfate discounts, also spot premiums in refined nickel resilient despite futures softness—consistent with tightness at the margin.
Manganese sulfate 32% Mn in China rose to ~¥6,100/t in October (+6.1% MoM) on firmer ore and stable NCM precursor demand.
Futures in silicon-manganese remain under pressure on off-season steel demand and reduced tender volumes, underscoring the divergence between steel alloys and battery-grade salts.
LFP inputs inch up. Iron phosphate (FePO₄) delivered China ~¥10,500/t in October (+3.4% MoM). With LFP cell demand solid in China, modest precursor inflation feeds through to pack costs, albeit with a lag.
Recycling & domestic supply build-out.
China continues to add battery recycling and precursor capacity—projects announced in Anhui, Jiangxi and Chongqing span 75–400 ktpa of scrap/packs and associated materials—supporting secondary unit availability into 2026 and easing primary feed reliance.
Positioning.
For NCM, flat-to-firm NiSO₄ and modest MnSO₄ gains keep CAM costs broadly steady; for LFP, slightly higher FePO₄ tilts costs up but remains manageable against robust Chinese demand.
Outlook: Neutral (nickel), Neutral-to-slightly-bullish (manganese/LFP). Expect range-bound NiSO₄ anchored by MHP tightness; MnSO₄ supported by ore costs; FePO₄ biased higher with domestic LFP throughput.