Nickel and Cobalt: Market Dynamics and Supply Pressures
Publish Date
Social unrest in Indonesia caused concerns over nickel ore supply and lifted both spot and futures prices; battery‑grade nickel sulphate averaged 27,627 yuan/tonne. MHP and high‑grade matte supplies tightened, while rising sulfur costs added pressure. Cobalt sulphate production slipped 1.56% month‑on‑month but remained up year‑on‑year; output is forecast to rise slightly in September as downstream cathode producers restock. Co₃O₄ prices stayed flat, and cobalt chloride firmed slightly though sentiment was lacklustre. Overall, nickel markets remain sensitive to supply disruptions while cobalt appears more balanced.
Indonesian unrest drives nickel volatility
Battery‑grade nickel prices climbed sharply in late August and early September after strikes and violent demonstrations in Jakarta disrupted Indonesian supply chains. The events raised concerns over nickel ore availability just as smelters held low spot inventories, prompting them to lift offers. Battery‑grade nickel sulphate index stood at 27,627 yuan per tonne, with transaction ranges between 27,700 and 27,900 yuan/tonne; prices were up on the week. Downstream precursor plants remained active buyers, and sellers raised quotes to reflect higher ore and sulfur costs. Futures prices mirrored the physical market – the most‑traded contract rose more than 1%, extending gains into the day session.
Tight intermediate supply and rising costs
In the mixed hydroxide precipitate (MHP) market, available spot cargoes dwindled as some traders ran out of inventory and others withheld offers. Forward quotations remained firm, buoyed by rising cobalt intermediate prices. High‑grade nickel matte was also tight; several smelters accepted higher offers to secure supply. The cost of sulfur, used to process nickel intermediates, continued to climb due to higher crude oil prices and stronger autumn demand, putting additional pressure on smelters’ margins. These factors combined to underpin nickel‑related product prices despite muted downstream inquiries.
Cobalt production and pricing trends
Cobalt markets are experiencing a gentler trajectory. Cobalt sulphate output dipped 1.56% month‑on‑month in August but remained 6.26% higher year‑on‑year. Elevated prices for intermediate feedstock from the Democratic Republic of the Congo have eroded processing margins, causing some smelters to reduce production or switch to more profitable cobalt chloride or cobalt oxide (Co₃O₄). Nonetheless, downstream ternary cathode and Co₃O₄ producers increased orders in August as they began seasonal stockpiling, prompting forecasts for a 2.67% month‑on‑month production uptick in September.
Spot cobalt products were stable. Co₃O₄ was quoted at 215,000–220,000 yuan/tonne, with most deals done at 210,000–215,000 yuan/tonne. Market participants reported a wait‑and‑see approach despite modest recovery in end‑use demand; some battery and cathode manufacturers opted to buy cobalt salts directly due to cost advantages, limiting Co₃O₄’s upside. Cobalt chloride prices edged higher but trading sentiment remained subdued, suggesting that near‑term moves may hinge on changes in raw‑material costs rather than demand.
Outlook
Nickel markets are likely to remain volatile as Indonesia’s socio‑political landscape evolves. Low inventories and the peak procurement season for precursor producers could keep pressure on prices, while cost pressures from sulfur and freight persist. Cobalt’s supply picture appears more balanced: slower production growth and stable prices indicate that demand is neither overheated nor collapsing. However, long‑term supply security remains uncertain given geopolitical risks in the DRC and Indonesia. Investors should monitor how rising nickel and cobalt prices feed into battery‑grade sulphate costs, and whether sustained high prices incentivise new projects or encourage substitution toward manganese‑rich or iron‑rich cathode chemistries.