The battery metals complex is diverging. Nickel prices have plunged to new lows, breaching pyrometallurgical cost lines and testing hydrometallurgical support levels. In stark contrast, the cobalt intermediate market is tightening rapidly due to DRC export quotas, creating a "price without market" scenario. Meanwhile, North America is accelerating its critical minerals independence with significant investments in graphite and copper projects by Titan Mining and Magna Mining. This analysis explores the cost structures defending nickel prices, the structural tightness in cobalt, and the latest feasibility data from major base metal projects.
Nickel prices experienced a sharp correction, with LME nickel falling to ~$14,295/mt, driven by macro pessimism and weak fundamentals. Prices have fallen below pyrometallurgical cost lines and are dangerously close to the hydrometallurgical break-even point of 111,000 yuan/mt (for MHP-to-refined nickel). With MHP accounting for 45% of refined nickel production growth, further price declines could trigger production cuts at hydrometallurgical lines. High sulfur prices ($540/mt), a key input, are raising production costs, potentially providing a hard floor for nickel prices.
The cobalt intermediate market is robust, characterized by a "price without market" dynamic due to limited liquidity. The Democratic Republic of Congo’s (DRC) export quota policy and a new strategic partnership have sparked anxiety over future availability, driving mainstream offers to $25.0/lb. Domestic raw materials in China are not expected to arrive until March 2026, sustaining structural tightness and supporting bullish price action for intermediates.
Manganese ore markets are stabilizing at high levels. Overseas miners have raised offers, with South African semi-carbonate lumps quoted at $4.15/mtu for January 2026 shipment. High-grade oxide ore prices have risen significantly due to scarcity and active purchasing by northern alloy plants, although southern demand remains tepid.
Graphite: Titan Mining secured a US$15 million investment to fast-track its Kilbourne Graphite Project in New York, aiming to re-establish a domestic US supply chain.
Copper/Nickel: Magna Mining has initiated a Pre-Feasibility Study (PFS) for its Crean Hill Project in Sudbury, building on a PEA that outlined a 13-year mine life with low capital intensity.
Copper: Sandfire Resources America released an updated PFS for the Black Butte Copper Project (Johnny Lee Deposit), projecting $2.3 billion in gross revenue and a post-tax NPV of $99 million, adhering to stringent environmental permits.
Bearish (Nickel) / Bullish (Cobalt): Nickel remains under pressure, with upside constrained by high inventory, though downside is limited by production costs. Expect volatility near the bottom. Cobalt intermediates are Bullish due to genuine supply chain constrictions and geopolitical friction in the DRC. Manganese is Neutral/Bullish, dependent on downstream alloy plant operating rates.